The antivirus software business is big and its only getting bigger.

Gartner numbers illustrate the market reaped $4 billion dollars worth of business in 2005, a 14 percent jump over the year before. Three vendors benefit the most from that growth, representing 86 percent of the markets revenues, but thats about to change.

Symantec accounts for nearly 54 percent share, a 12 percent revenue gain over 2004. Its next closest competitors are McAfee, which owns 19 percent of the market and earned 13 percent revenue growth, and Trend Micro, which represents 14 percent of the market on 9 percent revenue growth.

The real elephant in the room, however, may well be Microsoft.

The company is entering the antivirus market with both feet this year with the introduction of Windows Live OneCare and Microsoft Antigen among other security initiatives.

We believe that Microsofts entry into the antivirus market will have a huge long-term impact on the shape of the already commoditizing consumer desktop security markets, Nicole S. Latimer-Livingston, principal research analyst at Gartner, told internetnews.com.

Short term, I dont believe well see an immediate substantial shift in market share.

Latimer-Livingston expects that, on the consumer side of the equation, which accounts for 48.5 percent of the market, the Microsoft entry may well lower the overall revenue opportunity, as it is expected to increase price competition in the segment.

On the enterprise side, which accounts for 51.5 percent, Latimer-Livingston noted that Gartner believes that by year end 2008, Microsoft may capture as much as 15 percent of the market for desktop security products in firms with 1,000-plus employees and 40 percent of the market in those with fewer than 1,000.

Microsoft will not be a best-of-breed vendor, but that wont matter for many organizations. Latimer-Livingston said.

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